|Chance of Injury in 2021:||48%|
|Chance of Injury per Game:||4%|
|Projected Games missed for 2021:||1.1|
To our eyes, there doesn’t appear to be much left in Graham’s tank.
The numbers agree. Graham’s 38 catches and 447 yards in Green Bay last year were his lowest marks since his 2010 rookie campaign. His 7.5 yards per target ranked a middling 19th among 38 TEs with 40+ targets last year. Graham ranked 27th in that group in yards per route run and 33rd in Pro Football Focus’ receiving grades.
He finished just 21st among TEs in PPR points last year, despite playing with QB Aaron Rodgers on a Packers offense that had little at WR beyond Davante Adams. Graham did rank 12th in PPR points back in 2018, but he also ranked 6th at the position in targets. You need to go back to 2016 to find the last time Graham finished higher in PPR points than targets.
But the Bears evidently think Graham still has plenty to give. They handed the 33-year-old a 2-year, $16 million contract this offseason, making him the league’s 7th highest-paid TE in average annual salary.
That makes Graham a heavy favorite to at least open the season atop a crowded depth chart. The Bears added Cole Kmet in the 2nd round of this year’s draft, signed Demetrius Harris and kept Adam Shaheen and Ben Braunecker, among a few others. Kmet is the only serious threat to Graham’s lead job — and we know it usually takes TEs at least a year to really settle in.
So Graham is the favorite to lead Bears TEs in targets this year. But that doesn’t make him an exciting fantasy option. On top of the fact that he appears to be on his last legs, he’s not in a great situation. The Bears have ranked 21st and 29th in total yar…
|Nov 15, 2018||NFL||Hand Thumb Fracture||Graham fractured his left thumb in the 1st half against the Seahawks. Initially expected to miss time, he returned the following week.|
|Nov 29, 2015||NFL||Knee Patella Ligament Tear||Jimmy Graham tore his patellar tendon in the 4th quarter. He hit IR and had surgery in the 1st week of December.|
|Oct 5, 2014||NFL||Shoulder A/C Joint Sprain||Graham sprained his shoulder in Week 5 and had to leave the game. He played a limited role in Week 7, following a Week 6 bye.|
|Oct 13, 2013||NFL||Pedal Foot Plantar Fasciitis Grade 1||Graham partially tore the plantar fascia in his right foot. He dealt with it the rest of the season but missed no games.|
|Dec 23, 2012||NFL||Hand Finger Dislocation||Graham dislocated his right ring finger in Week 16 but played through it.|
|Oct 7, 2012||NFL||Pedal Ankle Sprain Grade 2||Graham sprained his right ankle in Week 5 and then missed Week 7 following the bye.|
|Aug 15, 2012||NFL||Hand Wrist Sprain/Pull Unspecified||Graham revealed late in the season that he'd been playing through an unspecified left wrist injury that originated in preseason.|