|Chance of Injury in 2021:||74%|
|Chance of Injury per Game:||8.1%|
|Projected Games missed for 2021:||2.5|
-- Ridley drew 19% of Falcons targets in his 6 games after the Mohamed Sanu trade.
-- He saw more deep, red-zone and end-zone targets in Year 2.
-- Atlanta has ranked among the 3 most pass-heavy teams in its past 3 seasons under OC Dirk Koetter.
-- Ridley’s 2019 fantasy points per game increased even with fewer TDs.
Ridley saw his high rookie-year TD rate come down in 2019. And, yet, he still increased his fantasy points per game across formats.
Ridley checked in 27th in PPR points per game in his 1st season to 19th in Year 2. In non-PPR, he climbed from 28th as a rookie to 15th last season.
The key difference: target volume. He garnered 1 more target in 13 games last season than he did over a full 2018. Mohamed Sanu’s trade certainly didn’t hurt. Ridley went from 12.8% of the team’s looks before Sanu left to 19% in the 6 games he got after the Sanu trade. And that came despite WR Russell Gage drawing a larger target share as the primary slot WR over the final 9 games than Sanu got over the first 7.
It also didn’t hurt that the Falcons climbed from 5th in the league in pass attempts in 2018 to the NFL lead last year. Expect more of that. In 4 seasons with Dirk Koetter as OC, Atlanta has never gone less than 63% pass. The Falcons have ranked 7th, 1st, 3rd and 1st in the league in pass-heaviness in those 4 years.
Atlanta added no worrisome target challenges this offseason. The team let TE Austin Hooper walk in free agency and acquired Hayden Hurst to replace him. The Falcons booted Devonta Freeman and replaced him with Todd Gurley, who has graded worse in receiving than Freeman in 3 of their 4 shared starting seasons.
At worst, that looks like a wash at those 2 positions -- and the changes could even push a few more targets to the WRs.
And the Falcons’ schedule looks like it’ll only encourage passing. According to Warren Sharp’s analysis o…
|Dec 8, 2019||NFL||Abdomen Muscle Strain Grade 2||Ridley missed the final three games of last season with an abdominal injury he suffered in the Week 14 win over the Panthers|
|Oct 14, 2018||NFL||Pedal Ankle Bruise||Ridley was knocked out of Week 6 with a bone bruise on his ankle. He was able to play the following week.|