|Chance of Injury in 2021:||78%|
|Chance of Injury per Game:||8.5%|
|Projected Games missed for 2021:||2.6|
What You Need to Know:
-The Bucs took the risk of signing Antonio Brown after he appeared in only 1 game in 2019 due to a flurry of off-field issues. He inked a 1-year deal worth ~$2 million.
-The contract wasn’t signed until shortly before Week 9. Brown was suspended for the first 8 games for breaking the league’s Personal Conduct Policy.
-Brown played alongside Chris Godwin and Mike Evans over the final 8 games. He played an average of 62.6% of the snaps per week as the WR3.
-Brown tallied 61 targets, 45 catches, 483 yards and 4 TDs over that stretch.
-He saw a 20.1% target share for a Bucs offense that ranked 3rd in pass rate (62.9%). Tom Brady ranked 2nd in raw attempts (610).
-Brown’s 2.07 yards per route run ranked 17th among 84 WRs with 50+ targets.
-He was used primarily as a short-to-immediate target. His 9.4-yard aDOT was his lowest since 2010.
-AB, now 33, didn’t show any visible signs of decline. He forced a missed tackle once every 6.5 catches — his best rate since 2015. His YAC per reception (5.2) marked his most since 2013.
-Brown missed the NFC Championship game with a knee injury before returning for the Super Bowl.
-He underwent knee surgery in mid-May but was able to pass a physical before signing another 1-year deal ($3.1 million) with Tampa Bay.
-The Bucs retained Chris Godwin on the franchise tag. In fact, the Bucs retained all 11 starters on offense — plus depth WRs Tyler Johnson and Scotty Miller.
-The team spent a 4th round pick on explosive KR/WR/gadget type Jaelon Darden. Don’t expect his arrival to impact AB’s production.
Draft Sharks Bottom Line
Joining the Bucs at midseason, Brown went on to finish as the WR22 over the final 8 games (14.6 PPR PPG). He nearly out-produced Chris Godwin (15.8 PPG) over that stretch.
Now, will a larger sample producer similar results? Our sense is that Brown’s 2020 production is on the high-end of what he can accomplish…
|Jul 31, 2019||NFL||Pedal Foot||Brown dealt with blisters on his feet throughout the training camp|
|Dec 23, 2018||NFL||Knee Strain Grade 1||Brown sustained an unspecified knee injury in Week 16 and missed the finale. A Pittsburgh Post-Gazette report indicated Brown didn't sit because of injury.|
|Jul 31, 2018||NFL||Inguinal Hip Strain||Brown missed time early in training camp with a hip flexor.|
|Dec 17, 2017||NFL||Leg Calf Tear||Brown left in the 1st half against the Patriots with a partially torn left calf. He missed 2 games, then returned after a 1st-round playoff bye.|
|Jan 9, 2016||NFL||Head Cranial Concussion Grade 1||Brown took a brutal hit from Vontaze Burfict with less than 20 seconds left in the Wild Card game against the Bengals. The concussion cost him the playoff loss the following week.|
|Nov 4, 2012||NFL||Pedal Ankle (high) Sprain Grade 3||Brown suffered a "mild" high left ankle sprain and missed the next 3 games.|