You win in Fantasy Football when you avoid over valued players and find under valued players.
Most fantasy football player valuations do not take the risk of injury into account and are based on:
- Previous performance
- Coaching system
- Competition within the team at that position
- Strength of schedule
- Analyst opinion
- Availability of other players at that position
Although these players were drafted early, the SIP algorithm identified them as having very high chances of being injured. Both missed a large portion of the season due to injury.
- ADP RB 11
- Produced as RB 21
- Suffered injuries to his ankle and groin
With no quantifiable way to predict injury, the variable of risk could not be factored into a player’s outlook for the year…until now
Sports Injury Predictor is a patent pending algorithm that determines the probability of a player being injured in a season
The algorithm learns over time and is based on the following factors:
An account of every injury that has taken place to skill position players in the NFL and college for the last 10 years. Includes type of injury, games missed, surgery required and more.
Sports Injury Predictor uses an injury correlation matrix to determine the statistical probability of an injury occurring based on previous injury.
Age, height, weight are all considered as part of a player’s overall analysis.
Play by Play Data
Position, how many times players will touch the ball in a game, number of plays a player is on the field for all become important in working out the likihood of injury.
We divide the pool of players into high, medium and low risk
By quantifying injury probability we are immune from sentiment that swirls around players as to whether they are “injury prone” or not.
High Risk Players (70-99% probability)
Low Risk “Safe” Players (0-29% probability)